: MAXAA KA CUSUB LACAGAHAAN EUR /USD
1. Xaaladda Hadda ee EUR/USD
Lammaan-lacageedka EUR/USD ayaa ku ganacsanaya heer qiyaastii 1.173-1.175.
In muddooyinkii ugu dambeeyay, Euro-du waxay muujisay xoog, qeyb ahaan sababtoo ah doolarku wuu liitay, iyadoo mala-awaalka ah in Bangiga Dhexe ee Mareykanka (Fed) uu bilaabi doono dhimista dulsaarka uu taageero.
Si kastaba ha noqotee, Euro-ga ayaa wajahaya culeysyo siyaasadeed (tusaale, kala qaybsanaan siyaasadeed gudaha Yurub) taas oo keeni karta in mugga iibsiga Euro-ga uu xadido.
Falanqaynta farsamo (technical analysis) ayaa muujineysa in EUR/USD mararka qaar uu jabiyay heerar iska caabin (resistance), laakiin dib usoo noqoshada (pullbacks) ayaa jira, taas oo tilmaamaysa in suuqu uu yahay mid dheellitirnaan leh (range-bound) ama isbeddel tartiib ah leh.
2. Fursadaha & Khatarta
: Fursadaha
Haddii Fed uu si tartiib tartiib ah u bilaabo in uu dhimista dulsaarka (rate cuts), doolarka ayaa dareemi kara daciifnimo, taas oo taageeri karta kororka EUR/USD.
Haddii waxyaabaha dhaqaale gudaha Yurub ay wax ka wanaagsan noqdaan (tusaale: koror wax-soosaarka, yareynta sicir-bararka, koboc shaqo), Euro-ga ayaa heli kara taageero wanaagsan.
Jebinta heerka “psychological resistance” ee ~1.2000 waxay noqon kartaa calaamad muujineysa isbeddel weyn oo mustaqbal fog.
Khatarta
Haddii Fed uu muujiyo inaysan diyaar u ahayn in uu dhimisto dulsaarka ama uu sii adkeysto siyaasadda lacagta, doolarku wuxuu awood yeelan karaa, taasoo cadaadis ku noqon karta Euro-ga.
Culeysyada siyaasadeed iyo dhaqaale ee Yurub—gaar ahaan wada-hadallada siyaasadda, ama dhaqaale daciifnimo—waxay wiiqi karaan kalsoonida Euro-ga.
Isbeddelo lama filaan ah (surprise) oo ku yimaada xogaha Mareykanka sida shaqooyinka, sicir-bararka (inflation), ama wararka kale ee lama filaanka ah ayaa keeni kara kacsanaan sarreeya iyo dhaqdhaqaaqyo xoog leh.
3. Heerar Muhiim ah (Support & Resistance)
: Jahada Heerar Muhiim ah
Taageero (Support) ~ 1.1650, 1.1600, 1.1540
Iska Caabin (Resistance) ~ 1.1780, 1.1840, 1.1900, iyo heerka maskaxda (psychological) ee ~ 1.2000
Fiiro gaar ah: haddii EUR/USD uu si cadaalad ah u jebiyo mid ka mid ah heerarkan, waxaa jirta fursad ay jihada suuqu ku muuji karto xoog.
4. Aragtida Mustaqbalka (Short-Term & Medium-Term)
Aragtida muddo-gaaban: Waxaa suurtogal ah in EUR/USD uu sii wado isbeddelka dhexdhexaadka ah (range) ama kor u kac tartiib tartiib ah haddii Euro-du hesho taageero iyo haddii doolarku uu sii liito.
Aragtida dhexe: Haddii Euro-du ay awooddo in ay ka gudubto caqabadaha, gaar ahaan haddii xogaha Yurub ay noqdaan kuwo wanaagsan, EUR/USD wuxuu isku dayi karaa inuu dhaafo ~1.2000. Laakiin haddii doolarka uu xooji noqdo, koror badan waa halis.
Aragtida fog: Haddii isbeddel siyaasadeed iyo dhaqaale uu saameeyo labadaba Mareykanka iyo Yurub, suurtogal ahaan waxaa dhici kara isbeddelo waaweyn oo qiimaha EUR/USD.
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